by Crónica Popular • December 7, 2019
Vicente Serrano
Member of the Board of Directors of the Progressive Citizen Alternative Association
Check link below for figures
Updating the historical series of electoral results in Catalonia offers us the outcome of Table 1. I understand this is a long task I leave here for those who want to lose their eyes. But we can verify something out of viewing it, and it is that although secessionism has always gone down in the general elections, in the last two, held this year, it has managed to exceed 30% of the electoral census.
We can see this more clearly in Figure 1, where we compare the vote for independence (yellow) with abstention (green). The best results of secessionism have always been given in regional elections, at which point abstention soared. It was the so-called differential abstention that considered that the “charnegos”, more prone to the left (PSC and PSUC / ICV) abstained since they did not feel moved by these regional elections.
From the autonomic ones of 2015 the differential abstention disappears and, against proedictions, secessionism goes up. It reaches its maximum in the regional ones of 2017, also abstention reaches its minimum.
As I said before, see Chart 2, independence (yellow) has managed for the second time to exceed 30% of the electoral census in general elections (both this year). But it can also be seen that as of 2015 “Non-Sovereignty” (green) increases and consolidates at the expense, above all, of “Non-Independent Sovereignty” (pink).
The “Non-Sovereignty” grows, especially, in the regional elections given the plebiscitary nature of the latter, while in the general ones, when prioritizing social problems, the “Non-Independent Sovereign” left recovers working-class voters. A game that will not be able to last for a long time: in that context we must see the C’s crisis.
It can be seen that the repetition of general elections this year has demobilized “Non-sovereignty”, increasing “Abstention” by 5%. “Independentism” maintains the percentages despite the incorporation of the CUP (secessionists) in the November elections.
The data of the November 10 elections in Catalonia
Pro-Independence stands at around 60% of the votes cast in Girona and Lleida, which are the least populated and over-represented provinces (See Table 2). Despite this, they are not socially majority, since they do not reach the 50% of the census. Certainly, they are hegemonic, and the feeling of anguish and oppression that they generate among the constitutionalists is very high.
On the contrary, with slight differences, the provinces of Barcelona and Tarragona, more industrial and working-class, more ‘charnegas’, and more populated, are those that establish the average of Catalonia, where although independence is important it has never exceeded one third of the population and is always behind “Non-Independentism” (“Non-Sovereignty” + “Non-Independent Sovereignty”)
It is important in this case to remember that the sum of “Independentists” and “Non-Independent Sovereignty” would give us the total number of Catalans who defend the so-called “Right to Decide”. This sum gives us 41.58% of the census … far, far away, from that, invented, 80% of which Torra and the entire secessionist cohort speak. As can be seen in the historical sequence of Table 1, the DaD has been losing bellows.
On the other hand, it is necessary to highlight the discrimination that the electoral system produces in the province of Barcelona since, representing almost 75% of the Catalan population, it only grants less than 67% of the MPs: it suffers a loss of representativeness of -11%. See Chart 4. Against this infra-representativeness, the provinces of Girona (+ 33%), Lleida (+ 50%) and, also, Tarragona (+ 21%), are clearly over-represented.
These discriminations, negative for Barcelona (-21%) and positive for the rest (+ 18%, + 34%, + 7%), are repeated in relation to the percentages with respect to the Spanish population and the representation granted. The under-representation of Catalonia as a whole (-11%) responds to the under-representation of Barcelona, corrected by the over-representation of the rest.
Corollary
Certainly, the pro-independence has consolidated positions reaching their maximums in the regional elections of 2015 and 2017 thanks to a Procés strongly subsidized and profusely promoted from the power of the Generalitat. It also grows and consolidates positions in the two calls for general elections this year, but not in the calls of 2015 and 2016.
In
the face of pro-independence, since 2015, the non-sovereignty sector has also
been consolidated and increased in the autonomous elections and it consolidated
its positions in the two general elections of this year, even if weakening
somewhat in the latter, certainly. Along with this, non-independence
sovereignty loses, to the benefit of non-sovereignty.
But the most important thing is the consolidation
of a clear majority of “Non-Independentism”, since 2015, both at regional and
general levels.
The sole constituency, guarantee of proportionality
So, the problem lies in how to make that non-independence majority hegemonic.
The big pitfall is the electoral system. Some may think that a majority system would facilitate change but the reality is that, as Spain is sociologically configured, it would grant greater representation to nationalism.
Only a proportional electoral system in a sole constituency would guarantee the correct representation of all without discrimination. All this together with a system of election for the executive that guarantees stability and governability that would allow us to move towards a solution to the severe state crisis that Spain is currently experiencing, as my good friend Jordi Cuevas rightly points out.
Constitutional reform, electoral reform, territorial reform, redistribution and recovery of competences by the central administration…
Courage and go for it!
Nou Barris, Barcelona. Friday, December 6, 2019.
Day of Spanish Constitution
*Author of the essay EL VALOR rEAL DEL VOTO, Editorial El Viejo Topo, 2016.
La consolidación de una mayoría clara del “No Independentismo”, dato principal del 10N en Cataluña
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