Vicente Serrano || 15 February 2021
Member of the Alternativa Ciudadana Progresista||
Election after election, the 80% of Catalans who want to vote in a self-determination referendum have not just appeared. If in 2017 the participation record was broken, exceeding 79%, and then it became clear that half of those who voted were not for the work, now it is clear that half of the Catalans are not happy with our politicians.
The “Illa effect”, I am not saying that it did not exist but its results have been more than limited. It is true that the PSC doubles its representation, but not because it has doubled the votes obtained. In fact, it has won votes compared to 2017, specifically just over 46,000. And he is the only one who wins votes, everyone else loses. In other words, the PSC increases its votes by (7.62%) and doubles its deputies.
A very well rewarded effect since each deputy costs him 19,783 votes, just over half of what they cost him in 2017: 35,685 votes. (See attached table). The general average cost per deputy falls in these elections, clearly devaluing them.
The results of VOX are very remarkable, since, starting from scratch, it enters Parliament giving the surprise to the PP and C’s. He has managed to take advantage of the anger of an electorate fed up with the politics of gestures. In a general environment of political apathy, growing up like this is a warning to sailors.
PDeCAT votes are heirs to the former JUNTSxCat, now divided. The new JxCat loses 568,000 votes that we could leave by 500,000 if we discount those of its old partners. They lose half the votes and, on the other hand, keep practically the same deputies.
ERC cannot boast of having won, with a loss of votes of 35% compared to 2017, and gets one more deputy.
The abstention has benefited the pro-independence bloc, assigning them a comfortable majority, with 74 deputies.
Comúns loses more than 40% of their votes and C’s, 86%
The apparent stability of Comúns (ECP-PEC) is not such since it has suffered a loss of more than 40% of its votes in 2017, almost 132,000 less. The low cost of votes rewards them with the same deputies.
The big loser of these elections is C’s with a loss of almost 86% of the votes obtained in 2017 (-951,000), leaving it in the penultimate position with only 6 deputies.
The PP also suffers significant vote losses (41%), losing only one deputy.
The CUP wears the downpour well and with a slight loss of votes over 3%, it benefits from the low electoral cost, doubling its representation.
PSC: wins many votes from C’s and loses many of his
The “Illa effect” has managed to remove many votes from C’s. However, it has lost many of its own, despite having slowed down the process somewhat. In other words, he wins many votes from C’s and loses many of his own, although overall, it must be recognized that he is the great beneficiary by concentrating the most active constitutional vote.
Abstention has won with more than 46%, the highest figure in the entire historical series if we discount the two “referendums” and the European ones.
The “sovereignty” loses 830,000 votes
Meanwhile, secessionism falls to percentages similar to those of the autonomous regions of 2006, without reaching 27% of the census. Together they have lost 830,000 votes, almost 37%.
The 2,267,000 independentists have been reduced to 1,437,000. They slightly exceed 50% of the vote cast, but do not reach, not even adding the votes of Comúns, to 31% of claimants of the “right to decide.” We still don’t see that 80% that fills the mouths of the Aragonès, Borrás or Colau.
The great debacle for “constitutionalism”
The great debacle is for non-sovereignty, misnamed constitutionalism, which feels abandoned and turns its back on its politicians. He loses 762,000 votes, almost 40% of the votes in 2017.
Without disregarding the deterrent effect of the Covid19 pandemic, it can be affirmed that the expectations open after the “constitutionalist” awakening of October 8 have been diluted just as, in its day, was done with the citizen movement against terrorism in ETA after the murder of Miguel Ángel Blanco. If that distant inertial movement was consciously dismantled, it has been diluted by the incompetence and lack of will of the so-called constitutionalist parties.
At least, Illa must be thanked for her willingness to run for President of the Government of the Generalitat , with fewer votes and fewer seats than Arrimadas had in his day. Another thing are the pacts, which are difficult, to which he can reach and his will to truly recover Catalonia for democracy or to continue using it as a bargaining chip to keep Pedro Sánchez in the chair of the Moncloa.
We will see!
Nou Barris, Barcelona. Monday, February 15.
* Author of THE REAL VALUE OF THE VOTE . Editorial El Viejo Topo.