Madrid – Mar 19 2018 10:15
Summary of the confidential report found in Santi Vila’s email.
Civil Guard report on the emails of the ‘procés’
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The emails intervened to the former counsellor of Enterprises of the Catalan Government Santi Vila reveal that he had economic reports that included a fall in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Catalonia of up to 20% in the event of independence. These analyzes held by secessionist leaders further concluded that the new independent state would not be viable outside the European Union.
The Guardia Civil highlights in the report that analyzes the emails of all the leaders of the procés, to which El Mundo has had access and which is already in the possession of the Tribunal Supremo, that “the Generalitat, and more specifically Santiago Vila, had knowledge of the risk and financial danger for companies in Catalonia after the vote on October 1». “Despite that,” the investigators stress, “the population was not informed and independence was declared unilaterally“.
Vila received by email on last October 18 at 18:19 a “case report of the business situation and list of companies in Catalonia that have changed their registered office” under the heading of Confidential. Economic implications of an independent Catalonia.
This document, which was sent to him from the Catalan Government itself, reflects as the worst possible scenario “a Catalonia outside the European economic area”. “An unlikely scenario and only contemplated by those opposed to independence would have major negative effects”, it said. “The exit would have very negative effects for exports (decreases of 45% -50% of sales to the Spanish State and 18% of exports to the European Union) and the Catalan economy”.
It also established as a probable scenario “a reduction of around 20% of GDP”. Immediately afterwards it stated that “it should not be considered as a viable option (the exit from the European Union) of a future independence of Catalonia”.
The aforementioned report also analyzes the so-called “border effect” that would occur in a possible secession. “Sales from Catalonia to Spain would be affected in the long term by the border effect, the phenomenon by which the trade of a territory within a state is more intense than the trade of the same territory with the territories of other states”.
“In the event of independence, Catalan sales to the different autonomous communities of the Spanish state would decrease due to decoupling, which would imply a significant decrease in total sales, taking into account that Catalonia sells products with the Spanish state for a value of 38,861 million euros (37.4% of total sales abroad) ».
The document continues, noting that “due to the boycott, a short-term reduction in sales from Catalonia to Spain of between 18% and 25% is estimated”. At the same time, it indicated that, according to estimates by the General Directorate of Commerce of the Generalitat, “Catalonia is the community that sells the most in the rest of the State”.
Therefore, “if the rest of the State stopped buying 100% of Catalan products, it would imply a reduction of 17.6% of GDP”. “In the long term these effects could be greater”, it ventured.
After analyzing this report, the Civil Guard concludes that “it can be seen that a detailed study has been carried out showing the negative effects of the declaration of independence in different scenarios, which were not explained to the Catalan population”.
Along with this first analysis, a second report has been found in Vila’s mailbox in which the Generalitat carried out a study of the evolution of companies since the referendum on October 1. According to this new document, “the number of companies that have moved their headquarters out of Catalonia amounts to 691 and together they total an annual turnover of more than 100,000 million euros”.
This analysis recorded “the companies that had communicated the possibility of changing their registered office”. It cited Danone, Pronovias, Seat, Siemens, Almirall, Grifols and stated that “the Mobile World Foundation had only guaranteed the 2018 edition”. It also assumed that the European Medicines Agency would be established in another capital on the occasion of the independence procés and branded these events as “lost investments”.
The scenarios of the ‘confidential’ report
If Catalonia leaves the EU. The report foresees a catastrophe if, as the European Commission announced, Catalonia becomes independent and falls outside its economic space: a 50% drop in sales to the State, a 18% drop in the EU and a crash of 20% of GDP.
Even if Catalonia remains in the EU. The prospects are not reassuring, according to the Generalitat: GDP would fall between 3.52% and 17.6% depending on the drop in sales with Spain.
Constant flight of companies. The report already included the concern about the departure of companies, and contemplated the departure of large multinationals such as Danone or Seat.