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ERC to win the elections in Catalonia and the PSC to be second force, ahead of JxCat. The CIS poll grants the majority to the pro-independence forces and anticipates the entry of Vox into the Parliament

Redacción @cronicaglobal

12/21/2020 12:28 PM Updated: 12/21/2020 5:58 PM

Esquerra Republicana (ERC) would win the elections in Catalonia, according to the poll published this Monday by the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS). Republicans would get 16.7% of the vote, followed by the PSC, with 14.3%. JxCat would be relegated to third force with 9.9% of the votes, ahead of En Comú Podem -7.6-.

Intención de voto en Cataluña / CIS DICIEMBRE 2020

Voting intention in Catalonia / CIS DECEMBER 2020

Vote + Sympathy in Catalonia, according to the CIS poll of December 2020 / CIS

Citizens (Cs) would follow, a very short distance, with 6.8% of the votes, and with 4.5% the CUP. Behind are the PP, with 3.5% of voters, and Vox, which would enter the Catalan Parliament with 1.5% of the votes. The same percentage as the PDECat. While 8.2% would not vote and another 3% would vote blank.

Voto+Simpatía en Cataluña, según el CIS de diciembre de 2020 / CIS

Vote + Sympathy in Catalonia, according to the CIS of December 2020 / CIS

Pro-Independence majority

According to the voting intention, the sum of ERC, JxCat and CUP would account for 31% of the votes, compared to 28.4% for PSOE, Cs and PP. If Vox were to join the latter, the result would reach 30%, and if the Communs were to join, the non-independence forces would reach 38.6% of the voters, although the alliance between the latter and the extreme right is unlikely. Regarding the poll last November – “which party would you vote for?” – ERC and PSC maintain their positions, although with a slight drop in both. The Republicans obtained a direct voting intention of 20.5% compared to 15.2% of the Socialists. Catalunya en Comú Podem was then in third place (8.7%), Ciudadanos in fourth position (8.2%) and JxCat in fifth place (8.1%).

Vote plus sympathy

Regarding the aspect of voting plus sympathy in a possible regional elections, the pro-independence parties would also add again a majority in the Parliament. Republicans would get 19.4% of the votes, followed by the PSC, with 16.4%. JxCat would be relegated to third force with 11.3% of the votes, ahead of En Comú Podem -8.6-. Thus, the result of ERC, JxCat and the CUP would reach 40% of the votes, compared to 32.2% of PSC, Cs, PP and Vox. Although they would reach 40.8% if the Comuns were added – a highly unlikely alliance.

CIS poll after the agreement of the Budgets

On a national scale, the sum of PP, Cs and Vox would exceed that of PSOE and Unidas Podemos in a hypothetical general election, according to the CIS. The Opinion Barometer maintains the Socialists as the most voted, with a percentage of 29.5%, but they experience a setback compared to previous studies, as is the case with their coalition partner, to the point that for the first time they are surpassed by the center-right and the extreme right.

The survey was carried out on the days in which Congress approved the General Budgets for 2021 with the support of the pro-independence formations of ERC and Bildu and with the vote against of the center-right formations.

Coalition Government failure

Both the PSOE and United We can harvest their worst data in the CIS since the general elections a year ago, with a support of 29.5% and 10.8%, while the PP rises to 19.2%, Vox marks 14% and Ciudadanos reaches 10.5%, threatening the fourth place in the confederal group.



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