A. FERNÁNDEZ. BARCELONA 31/07/2020
Demonstration in Barcelona on the second anniversary of the illegal referendum of 1-O. (EFE)
Support for independence falls strongly in Catalonia. According to data from the latest survey by the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO, the Catalan CIS), 50.5% of Catalans do not want Catalonia to become an independent State. For the first time since this question was introduced six years ago in the polls, this magnitude exceeds half the population, while supporters of achieving independence stand at 42%, one of the lowest scores in recent times. . In the previous barometer, supporters of independence totaled 44.9% compared to 47.1% who rejected it.
The quantitative leap, then, is important. The perception of the fit of Catalonia in Spain is also directed towards the same trend. In the latest poll, 33.9% believe that Catalonia should be an independent state (in the previous wave, this magnitude reached 35.5), while those who believe that it should be an autonomous community rise to 29.6% (Before they were 26.8%) and those who bet on a state within a federal Spain stood at 22.9% (they were 23.9%). Only 6.8% bet that it is a region of Spain. The survey was carried out between June 25 and July 21.
In the questions about the feeling of belonging, 40.6% considered themselves as Spanish as Catalan (in the previous survey it was 39.1), while those who felt they were only Catalans rose to 22.9% (previously they were the 22.3). Those who feel more Catalan than Spanish, on the other hand, drop 20.1 (before they were 22.6%); those who feel more Spanish than Catalans stand at 4.8% (before they were at 4.1) and those who feel only Spanish drop from 6.5 to 5.5%.
Regarding a possible referendum, the survey highlights that 50.4% agree with the statement that Catalans have the right to decide their future as a country by voting in a referendum, while 27.9% agree “quite well ” In contrast, 9.4% disagree and 6.4% highly disagree. These sentiments are very similar to those in the February poll.
In terms of voting intention, ERC takes the cake, since 19.4% of respondents choose this force as their favorite or who will vote if regional elections are held right now. It is followed by the intention to vote the PSC, which reaches 12.1%, followed by Junts per Catalunya (10,1), Catalunya en Comú Podem (7.9), the CUP (4), Ciudadanos (3.3) and the PP (1.8). These magnitudes are the same as in the previous survey, although with much smaller percentages.
If the elections were the general ones, ERC would continue to win with 17.6% of voting intention, followed closely by the PSC, with 15.7%. The Comuns would follow, with 9.8%; Junts per Catalunya (8.4), the CUP (3.5), Ciudadanos (3.2) and the PP (2.8). Vox itself would remain in that context with 1.4% of voting intention. In these months, if anything was evident, it is that the PSC shortens distances with the Republicans and support for Vox is reduced by one point.
The crisis changes perceptions
The perception of the problems of Catalonia has also been disrupted by the health crisis. 29.4% of Catalans believe that healthcare is currently the most important problem, followed by dissatisfaction with politics (15.3%), Catalonia-Spain relations (14.3%), unemployment and job insecurity (13.7%) and the functioning of the economy (8%). Just four months ago, the main problem was relations between Catalonia and Spain (24.3%), dissatisfaction with politics (21.5%), unemployment (14.3%) and healthcare (6.2 %).
The perception of the Catalan economy is also sinking. 75.3% believe that the economic situation of the community is worse than a year ago and 41.4% believe that it will worsen in the future, while only 24.3% believe that it will remain the same and 24.8% he hopes it will improve. On the other hand, the economic situation of the respondents is, for the most part, the same as it was a year ago, and only 33.5% believe that it has worsened.
Catalans also see the political situation in Catalonia worse than that of Spain: 53.5% consider it to be bad, while only 50.4% consider that of Spain to be bad. On the other hand, 20% of citizens see the situation in Catalonia very bad and 23.9% see that of Spain very bad.
In the assessment of leaders, the only one who approves is Oriol Junqueras, who obtains an average grade of 5.72, followed by the Minister of Health, Salvador Illa (4.97) and the general secretary of the ERC, the escape Marta Rovira (4 , 82). These are followed by Podemos Mp Jaume Asens (4.81), the CUP parliamentary leader, Carles Riera (4.80), the leader of the ‘Comuns’, Jessica Albiach (4.46), the president of the Genealitat, Quim Torra (4.18), the escaped Carles Puigdemont (4.05), the socialist leader, Miquel Iceta (4.02), the PP leader, Alejandro Fernández (2.61) and the parliamentary leaders of Ciudadanos , Lorena Roldán (2.5) and Carlos Carrizosa (2.23).
The valuation of the Government of the Generalitat is also not to launch rockets: the average mark it gets is 4.07 (16.7% values it with a bare zero), while that of the Spanish Government reaches only 3, 84 (and 16.9% give them a zero). It is curious that the negative ratings of both governments were attenuated and the positive ratings rose strongly compared to the previous poll.